The yen traded in the upper 158 range against the dollar in Tokyo foreign exchange trading on the morning of Monday, the 24th. As of 10:00 a.m., the dollar-yen pair stood at 158.73–74 yen, up 9 sen from the previous weekend. With few notable trading catalysts, price movements remained narrow.
In early trading, the yen briefly weakened. At 8:30 a.m., the pair was quoted at 158.96–98 yen, down 14 sen from the previous Friday’s 5:00 p.m. level. Heightened uncertainty over the Middle East drove safe-haven dollar buying, while persistently elevated crude oil futures fueled speculation of a widening Japanese trade deficit, prompting yen selling and dollar buying.
As trading picked up, the yen pared its losses and recovered to a slightly stronger level against the previous weekend. Market participants noted that “many investors appear to be on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. announcement of sanctions on Iran” (forex broker).
Tensions over Iran sanctions weigh on market direction
The trajectory of U.S. sanctions on Iran is capping market direction. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to unveil specific details of new economic sanctions against Iran at a press conference on the 24th.
Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned on the 22nd that any country participating in sanctions against Iran would be “considered an enemy.” Through state media, he reportedly cautioned that cooperation with the United States would result in “not a single drop of oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz.”
These remarks have reinforced expectations that supply concerns over Middle Eastern crude will persist. In trading on the 21st, the front-month contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude, settled at $87.06 per barrel, up $0.23 (0.3%) from the previous day. In trading on the morning of the 24th Japan time, WTI remained elevated in the $86 range, and the view remains entrenched that persistently high crude prices weigh on the yen through deterioration in Japan’s trade balance.
Euro falls against both yen and dollar
The yen strengthened against the euro. As of 10:00 a.m., the euro-yen pair stood at 185.48–52 yen, up 19 sen in yen strength and euro weakness from the previous weekend. At 8:30 a.m., the pair was quoted at 185.60–62 yen, up 7 sen, with the yen gradually strengthening over time.
The euro also declined against the dollar. At 8:30 a.m., the euro-dollar pair stood at $1.1675–76, down $0.0015 in euro weakness and dollar strength. Against the backdrop of Middle East uncertainty, a shift of funds into the dollar, viewed as a safe-haven asset, triggered euro selling, which spilled over into euro selling against the yen as well.
The following table summarizes movements in major currency pairs.
| Currency Pair | As of 10:00 a.m. | Change from Previous Weekend |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar-Yen | 158.73–74 yen | 9 sen yen stronger / dollar weaker |
| Euro-Yen | 185.48–52 yen | 19 sen yen stronger / euro weaker |
| Euro-Dollar | $1.1675–76 | $0.0015 euro weaker / dollar stronger |
Note: Euro-dollar figures are as of 8:30 a.m.
Key focus ahead
Market participants’ attention is focused on Treasury Secretary Bessent’s press conference on the 24th. Depending on the specific content and scope of the sanctions, tensions in the Middle East could escalate further, potentially accelerating a rise in crude oil prices and risk-averse moves.
On the other hand, if the sanctions remain within expected parameters, excessive caution may recede and the yen could regain stability. With no notable economic indicators scheduled for release in the Tokyo market, nervous trading is likely to continue for the time being as investors monitor Middle East developments and U.S. policy direction.
