The EUR/USD pair began the week around 1.0789, reflecting heightened global economic uncertainties and a strong inclination towards safe-haven assets. The appeal of the US dollar is bolstered by rising US government bond yields and positive consumer confidence indicators from the University of Michigan, which reported a rise to 70.5 points in October, surpassing expectations.
The preference for the US dollar as a safe haven was notably evident over the weekend during Japan’s general election, underscoring the currency’s reliability in times of political and economic uncertainty.
Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair faces a critical week with upcoming releases of October’s labor market data from the US. These figures are crucial as they could influence the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate adjustments. Current market expectations lean towards two rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points. However, upcoming employment data could potentially recalibrate these expectations, impacting the EUR/USD trajectory.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD
H4 Chart Analysis: The EUR/USD has recently completed an upward wave reaching towards 1.0838 and is now undergoing a correction towards 1.0780. Should this correction complete, anticipation for a new growth wave towards 1.0850 will increase, potentially leading to the formation of a consolidation range around this level. A break above this range could extend the upward momentum towards 1.0944. The MACD indicator supports this potential, with its signal line positioned below zero but pointing upwards, suggesting an impending positive shift in momentum.
H1 Chart Analysis: On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD has stretched a growth structure to 1.0838 and is currently correcting towards 1.0780. Once this correction target is met, a new upward movement is expected to commence towards 1.0815, with potential to continue towards 1.0850. This forecast is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is rising from above 20 towards 80, indicating the likelihood of continued upward price action.
