Oil Price Forecast: Goldman Raises December Brent Outlook to $90
Recovering Gulf exports have yet to remove oil’s disruption premium, leaving Goldman Sachs expecting a slower decline in Brent oil prices towards December.
Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent oil price forecast for December 2026 to a monthly average of $90 a barrel, as the threat of further supply disruption keeps crude expensive despite recovering Middle Eastern exports.
With Brent quoted near $105.83 at the time of writing, down 0.77% over the past 24 hours, the upgrade still anticipates lower prices.
In a recent brief to clients, Goldman’s analysts note: “We nudge up our Brent Dec26 price forecast to $90/bbl (vs. $85 prior) because ongoing downside risks to supply likely slow the moderation in the timespreads risk premium-which we estimate at just over $20 today.”
That premium is measured through the gap between near-term and longer-dated oil prices, rather than being a separate charge added to each barrel.
More exports do not mean production has recovered
Goldman writes: “We estimate that Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated dark exports, have recently recovered to their 2025 average and that the global market was roughly balanced in September. Prices remain high because downside risks to supply, low stocks, and the high sensitivity of interest rates to oil prices are driving strong oil demand for physical restocking and financial hedging.”
Some of the export recovery has come from shipping previously produced crude, drawing on stored supplies while regional production remains below its pre-war level.
More tankers willing to leave the Gulf have helped, but rebuilding production is a slower process than moving barrels already available for export.
Goldman sets out the recovery its forecast requires:
“We assume Mideast output returns gradually to pre-war levels by 2027H2 before overshooting as the UAE and Saudi Arabia deploy spare capacity. Although Gulf output is likely to be less smooth than our stylized base case, we expect it to trend higher as continued adaptation and added transportation resources-especially pipelines and a larger tanker fleet-support further gains.”
The US Energy Information Administration’s latest assessment of global oil supply also identifies improving Middle Eastern exports alongside longer shipping routes and constrained tanker availability.
Recovered export volumes leave unresolved how reliably deliveries can continue, and at what cost.
Depleted stocks support buying
Buyers also need barrels to replenish inventories, competing with demand for immediate consumption.
Goldman’s analysts explain: “We estimate the fair value of oil prices relative to long-dated prices (timespreads) using both OECD commercial stocks and now also other global landed stocks, which have become predictive of prices. Incorporating low global inventories outside OECD commercial storage raises our September spot Brent spot fair value by $6 to $80, supporting restocking demand.”
Low global stocks help explain the persistent supply premium in earlier Brent and WTI forecasts, even as more crude reaches international markets.
Emergency stocks may provide further relief, particularly for diesel.
In its recent statement on the diesel market, the International Energy Agency encouraged members to assess additional diesel releases ahead of its 15 October Governing Board meeting.
Those possible extra releases are separate from its call to accelerate outstanding commitments from March, and no new fixed volume was announced.
Shipping costs keep WTI cheaper
Goldman’s outlook for US crude reflects the cost of moving it to buyers across the Atlantic.
“We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs. Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in Dec26 and $73 in 2027.”
Expensive tanker transport makes it harder for cheaper US barrels to close the price gap with Brent, leaving the two benchmarks with different paths even under the same global supply assumptions.
For Brent, the near-term upgrade has not altered Goldman’s forecast for next year as a whole:
“Our 2027 average Brent forecast of $80 is unchanged and balances downward price pressure from faster-than-expected adaptation in Gulf supply against a slower moderation in the risk premium.”
Bank of America also projects substantially lower Brent prices, with $74 a barrel in its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2027.
That later quarterly projection is distinct from Goldman’s full-year average, but both point towards cheaper oil.
Goldman’s biggest upside risk is a failure of that production recovery:
“Brent might average around $125/bbl in 2027 if 2027 average Gulf output remains 5mb/d below Feb26 levels, versus 0.3mb/d below in our base case. Damage to oil infrastructure, intensified shipping attacks, and a more persistent risk premium are the most likely potential triggers of price upside.”
WTI/Brent Crude Oil Price FAQ
What is Goldman Sachs’ Brent oil forecast for December 2026?
Goldman forecasts a December monthly average of $90 a barrel, raised from $85. That remains below the current Brent quotation near $105.83.
Why could oil stay expensive as Gulf exports recover?
Goldman points to depleted inventories, restocking demand and continuing disruption risks. Export recovery also includes previously produced oil, while regional production remains below pre-war levels.
What is Goldman’s $125 oil-price scenario?
It is a conditional 2027 Brent average if Gulf output remains five million barrels a day below February 2026 levels. Goldman’s base case is $80.
