The dollar-yen pair lacked clear direction in the New York foreign exchange market on the 15th, trading at 155.08 yen per dollar as of 24:00, roughly 11 sen stronger than the 22:00 level of 154.97 yen. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision scheduled for the following day, many market participants moved to adjust positions, keeping trading confined to a narrow range centered around the 155.00 level.
While the dollar-buying momentum carried over from the Tokyo session, there was little appetite to aggressively chase higher levels. The dollar-yen trading range in the New York session spanned from 154.21 yen to 155.24 yen. Risk-averse positioning ahead of the FOMC permeated the broader market, with all major currency pairs posting only modest moves.
EUR/USD was similarly range-bound. As of 24:00, the pair traded at $1.1543 per euro, roughly $0.0003 weaker than the 22:00 level of $1.1546. There was a brief move up to around $1.1552 around 23:30, but with the overnight high of $1.1553 set during Oceania hours acting as near-term resistance, the pair was pushed back to around $1.1541. No clear directional bias emerged ahead of the U.S. monetary policy event.
EUR/JPY stood at 179.01 yen as of 24:00, roughly 8 sen stronger than the 22:00 level of 178.93 yen.
Dollar-Buying Bias Carries Over from Tokyo Session
In the Tokyo foreign exchange market earlier in the day, dollar-yen showed a firm tone. With rate-hike expectations building ahead of the FOMC meeting, U.S. long-term interest rates remained at elevated levels, supporting dollar buying. The pair climbed steadily from 153.37 yen in the morning, reaching as high as 154.96 yen in the afternoon.
As of 17:00, dollar-yen traded between 154.80 and 154.90 yen, while EUR/JPY traded between 178.70 and 178.80 yen. EUR/USD declined from $1.1596 to $1.1527, with euro weakness standing out.
In the afternoon Tokyo session, dollar-yen briefly rose to 154.89 yen before position-adjustment selling emerged ahead of the psychological 155 level, capping further gains. A source at an asset management firm noted that “position-adjustment selling emerged ahead of the psychological 155 level.” A think tank source expressed the view that “it is difficult to see moves testing 155 ahead of the FOMC announcement.”
Key Economic Indicators and Equity Markets
Among economic indicators released the same day, China’s August retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month, falling short of market expectations of a 0.8% increase, while industrial production rose 5.2% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 4.8%. The UK’s ILO unemployment rate for May-July came in at 4.9%, slightly below the market consensus of 5.0%.
In the Tokyo equity market, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 63,484.10, down 8.89 points from the previous trading day. The index opened at 63,190.37, reached a high of 64,101.00, and hit a low of 63,067.18.
Major Currency Trading Ranges
| Currency Pair | Trading Range (15th) | 24:00 Level | 22:00 Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar-yen | 154.21 – 155.24 yen | 155.08 yen | 154.97 yen |
| EUR/USD | $1.1527 – $1.1553 | $1.1543 | $1.1546 |
| EUR/JPY | 178.14 – 179.08 yen | 179.01 yen | 178.93 yen |
Note: Trading ranges reflect reference values across the Tokyo and New York sessions on the 15th.
Many market participants believe the FOMC outcome will serve as a key inflection point, determining whether dollar-yen breaks decisively above 155 or enters a corrective phase. The trajectory of U.S. long-term interest rates is likely to remain the dominant factor shaping dollar-yen direction going forward.
