The Bitcoin price jumped 21% in five days as ETF demand and Treasury liquidity return, reviving forecasts from $82,000 to $150,000.
Bitcoin’s August rebound has changed the price outlook almost as quickly as it changed the market mood.
The Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTC/USD) price traded around $75,950 early on Sunday, down around 1.5% on the session after touching $79,176 during the latest surge.
That still leaves Bitcoin almost 21% higher over five days and around 17% higher over the past month.
More importantly, several of the forces blamed for the first-half collapse have begun to reverse.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $1.6 billion between Monday and Thursday, including roughly $606 million on Thursday alone, the strongest daily inflow since May.
The US Treasury’s decision to double buybacks of longer-dated government bonds also pushed investors back towards scarce assets as the Dollar weakened, while Washington’s renewed attempt to advance crypto legislation added another source of support.
Standard Chartered: $100,000 May Be Too Conservative
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has been one of the most consistent Bitcoin bulls through this year’s volatility.
After the Treasury announcement, Kendrick described the policy shift as “exactly the type of thing Bitcoin loves” and said investors should be positioning for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.
Following the subsequent jump towards $80,000, that target is already beginning to look less ambitious.
Kendrick now says $100,000 could be “too low”, with the recovery potentially extending towards Bitcoin’s previous record near $126,000 before year-end if ETF demand continues to improve.
The argument is straightforward.
Treasury support has loosened financial conditions, the Dollar has come under pressure and ETF investors are returning after months of withdrawals.
That gives Bitcoin a considerably better backdrop than it faced when prices dropped below $60,000 in June.
| Institution | Bitcoin Forecast | Horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | $100,000, with $126,000 retest possible | End-2026 |
| Bernstein | $150,000 | End-2026 |
| Bernstein | $200,000 cycle peak | 2027 |
| Citi | $82,000 base case / $53,000 bear case | 12 months |
Bernstein Still Has $150,000 in Sight
Bernstein is considerably more aggressive.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team continue to target $150,000 by the end of 2026, with a $200,000 cycle peak pencilled in for 2027.
Bernstein admitted last month that the $150,000 objective was “ambitious”, but argued that Bitcoin’s latest bear market had been much shallower than the 75%-90% collapses seen at the end of previous cycles.
The analysts said they were watching fund flows for “any signs of life”.
Those signs have now appeared.
ETF demand has returned, Strategy remains a substantial buyer and the Treasury intervention has provided precisely the liquidity catalyst Bitcoin had been missing.
There is still an important distinction between a genuine new bull leg and a short squeeze.
More than $4 billion of bearish crypto positions were liquidated during the rally, helping accelerate the move, while Bitcoin has already slipped back from Friday’s high.
Citi’s $82,000 Forecast Now Faces a Different Market
Citi provides the more cautious counterweight.
The bank cut its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $82,000 from $112,000 in July and retained a $53,000 bear case under recessionary conditions.
At the time, Citi had reduced its assumption for Bitcoin ETF inflows over the following year from $10 billion to zero.
“ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently,” Citi said.
That was the central weakness in the bullish case then.
It is no longer the market investors are looking at now.
The immediate question is therefore less about whether Bitcoin can briefly clear $80,000 and more about whether institutional buying persists once the short squeeze has run its course.
If ETF inflows continue alongside a weaker Dollar and easier Treasury-market conditions, Standard Chartered’s $100,000 target increasingly looks achievable rather than extreme.
Bernstein’s $150,000 forecast would require a much larger restoration of institutional demand, but the latest rally has at least reopened that argument.
Citi’s $82,000 target remains a useful warning that the recovery is not guaranteed, particularly if ETF demand fades again or US yields rebound sharply.
For now, however, the balance of evidence has shifted.
Bitcoin has gone from searching for a bottom below $60,000 to testing whether the liquidity, regulatory and institutional pieces are finally aligning for another attempt at six figures.
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