MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee may open marginally higher on Thursday after peers did not react much to the pushback from the Federal Reserve on March rate cuts.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.02 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.0425 in the previous session.
Asian currencies “have not reacted much” to the Fed outcome and momentum should help rupee move higher at open, an FX trader at a bank said.
“We will see what the budget holds, though I doubt it will mean much (for the rupee).”
India’s finance minister will lay out the federal budget at 11.00 a.m IST for the fiscal year starting April 1.
Odds that the Fed will slash interest rates at its March meeting were down to 1-in-3 after Chair Jerome Powell said that he does not consider it likely that policymakers will reach a level of confidence by the time of the meeting to begin cutting interest rates.
A month back, the odds were at 3-in-4. The U.S. economy is growing at a faster pace than previously expected. The U.S. labor market holding up has prompted investors to reconsider the March rate cut and Powell’s comments reinforced that.
Asian currencies were mixed, while the dollar index dipped. Asian currencies were perhaps drawing support from the decline in the 10-year U.S. yield despite a lower likelihood of a March rate cut.
The selloff in U.S. equities alongside weak U.S. private payrolls pushed back the 10-year yield to below 4%.
“Going forward, the market will be on the lookout for financial sector, job market, and inflation prints,” DBS Research said in a note.
“Labour market weakness or a couple more stable inflation prints would tilt the Fed towards earlier cuts.”
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.16; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.25 paise ** Dollar index down at 103.44 ** Brent crude futures up 0.8% at $81.2 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.9450% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $218.3mln worth of Indian shares on Jan. 30
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $301.6mln worth of Indian bonds on Jan. 30
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
By Nimesh Vora
