Voters in Taiwan head to the polls on Saturday in a three-party race between:
- Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
- Kuomintang (KMT)
- Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)
The DPP currently has a majority with 63 seats followed by KMT with 38 and TPP with 5. The DPP is the most anti-Beijing party while the KMT and TPP want to maintain closer ties.
The final Taiwan election polls were done on January 2, with polling after that date banned. They showed a healthy lead for DPP but illustrate that a wide range of outcomes remain possible.
Voting will run from 8 am to 4 pm local time with local media likely to make predictions in the early evening and the results likely to be clear late in the evening.
Voters make three choices: The President, the local candidate and the party, with seats divided on a proportional system.
Market reaction
Outside of Taiwan directly, eyes will be on Chinese markets, which have struggled badly both last year and so far in 2024. One often-cited reason is angst around Taiwan. if the KMT/TPP were to win, it would signal a much-more constructive relationship and a diminished chance of war. However if the DPP were to crush its opponents and beat the polls, worries could worsen. That said, I have seen time and time again how there is invariably a relief rally following any high-tension election.
