* Policy rate expected to remain in 5.25%-5.50% range
* Analysts see Fed scaling back projected 2024 rate cuts
* Start of policy easing hinges on inflation data
WASHINGTON, June 12 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is
expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with
new economic projections from the U.S. central bank’s
policymakers likely to show fewer rate cuts this year and a
delayed start to monetary policy easing.
Fed officials will receive a new round of inflation data
that could shape their outlook just hours before they conclude
their latest two-day meeting and release a fresh policy
statement and updated quarterly projections.
But with the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation to its 2%
target showing only modest improvement this year through April
and strong job growth allaying concerns of a weakening economy,
analysts expect the central bank to maintain its “no-rush”
attitude towards rate cuts, leaving the benchmark policy rate in
the 5.25%-5.50% range that was set last July.
“Given that inflation remains above target and activity
remains robust, the Fed can exercise patience in determining
when it would next adjust its policy rate,” Bank of America
economists wrote about a meeting they felt would see little
change to the central bank’s policy statement or in the guidance
Fed Chair Jerome Powell offers in his post-meeting press
conference.
The statement is due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800
GMT), with Powell speaking to reporters half an hour later.
Given the current stalled progress on inflation, many
analysts expect the Fed’s “dot plot” projection for its
benchmark policy rate to show only two quarter-percentage-point
rate cuts by the end of this year, versus the three anticipated
as of March – if only to account for the lapse of time.
But the median could easily tip to only one cut among a
nearly evenly divided group of policymakers.
“If there is any risk … it’s that there will be only one
25-basis-point rate cut this year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief
economist for RSM US, with Powell using his press conference to
“manage expectations” at a point where Fed policymakers feel
particularly uncertain about the path the economy may follow.
CPI DATA
Powell and other policymakers have minimized the risk of a
further rate increase. The Fed aggressively raised rates in 2022
and 2023 after inflation surged to a 40-year peak.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s
preferred inflation measure, has declined from a 7.1% peak
annual pace in June 2022 to 2.7% as of April. The current policy
rate is regarded as restrictive enough to discourage investment
and spending and gradually return inflation to the Fed’s target.
Yet policymakers are not ready to commit to any cuts until
they’ve seen more progress. Just as they acknowledge risks that
unemployment could rise fast and warrant rate cuts to support
the economy, they see aspects of inflation, particularly in
housing and the broad services sector, that may have stalled at
too high a level.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer price index
rose only 0.1% in May, which would be the weakest reading since
October, with “core” prices excluding food and energy forecast
to increase 0.3%. The U.S. Labor Department is due to release
the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
While the year-over-year CPI rates are expected to show no
or little change from April, the report’s details should be seen
“as a step in the right direction,” after inflation surged more
than expected earlier in 2024, BNP Paribas economists wrote.
In their final comments before the latest policy meeting, a
number of central bank officials, including Fed Governor
Christopher Waller, said they needed to see several more months
of improving inflation data before deciding to cut rates,
statements investors have construed as pushing back any rate
reduction to the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting at the earliest.
Even that start date for the policy easing is a virtual
toss-up. As of Tuesday, there was less than a 51% likelihood of
a U.S. rate cut in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch
Tool.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)
