MUMBAI, Jan 23 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is likely to
decline at the open on Tuesday, on diminishing odds that the
U.S. Federal Reserve will slash borrowing costs this quarter.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will
open at around 83.10 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its close
of 83.0650 on Friday. The market was closed on Monday.
The USD/INR near outlook is now “more or less neutral”,
having made its way back above 83, a forex trader at a bank
said.
“In an environment where markets are recalibrating
expectations on the Fed’s March move, the (USD/INR’s) recent low
of near 82.80 will not be revisited.”
The probability of a Fed rate cut in March has dropped to
nearly 40%, from 75% a week back, according to the CME FedWatch
tool. The odds of a cut at next week’s meeting are almost zero.
Recent U.S. economic data and comments from Fed officials
have prompted investors to rethink when the U.S. central bank
will deliver its first rate cut.
A host of Fed officials last week, beginning with Governor
Christopher Waller, pushed back on market expectations of
aggressive rate cuts, cautioning that the central bank will need
to be sure that inflation will drop to sustain around the 2%
target before cutting rates.
Last week, the dollar index climbed to its highest in
more than a month, while U.S. Treasury yields are now well off
recent lows.
The focus this week will be on the Bank of Japan’s policy
decision, due shortly, and the European Central Bank’s decision
on Thursday.
On the BoJ policy, “the market’s attention will be on what
Governor Kazuo Ueda thinks about inflation and wage growth and
whether he will give any hints of policy change in the near
future,” ING Bank said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at
83.19; onshore one-month forward premium at 8.25 paisa
** Dollar index at 103.22
** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $80 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.1%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $1,106.1
million worth of Indian shares on Jan. 18
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $144.1
million worth of Indian bonds on Jan. 18
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Savio D’Souza)
