EUR/USD Stuck in a Holding Pattern Ahead of High Impact Data Releases

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

• EUR/USD waiting for US Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT
• Heavyweight Euro, German and US data releases set for release on Friday.
• EUR/USD trades on either side of 1.1050 for now.

The economic calendar is a trader’s best friend for the rest of the week as heavyweight data rolls out of the US and the Euro Area. Today we get the first look at US Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT before a range of growth, inflation and jobs data hits the screens on Friday. Each one of these releases has the ability to move market sentiment and direction ahead of the weekend.

For all market-moving events and economic data releases, see the real-time DailyFX Calendar

The Euro continues to find strength from ongoing hawkish central bank chatter with next week’s ECB rate decision finely balanced. Some members see a 25 basis point as suitable while others are calling for 50 basis point hike. The ECB has already raised interest rates by 350 basis points since August 2022, at the fastest rate in the single block’s history, as the ECB tries to tackle stubbornly high inflation. Euro Area annual inflation is seen at 6.9% in March, down from 8.5% in February, but significantly higher than the central bank’s mandate of 2%.

EUR/USD trades on either side of 1.1050 ahead of today’s US GDP release with support seen around 1.0960 and resistance at 1.1096, Wednesday’s multi-month high. All three simple moving averages are in order and remain supportive, while a multi-week series of higher highs and higher lows remains in place.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – April 27, 2023

Chart via TradingView

Retail Traders Slash Longs and Increase Shorts

Retail trader data show 33.93% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.95 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 30.03% lower than yesterday and 23.38% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.11% higher than yesterday and 16.12% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias

What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.