USD exchange rate today (October 19): The US dollar faces downward pressure this week.

Chart showing the fluctuations of the DXY Index over the past week. Image: Marketwatch

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market assesses the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at its late October meeting at 83%, a sharp increase from 49% a month earlier. Speaking at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand , on October 16th, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh did not give a specific signal about the upcoming interest rate decision. Meanwhile, analysts believe there is not enough internal support within the Fed for an interest rate hike in October, although the possibility of tightening policy in December has not been ruled out. If expectations of further Fed rate hikes weaken, the US dollar could lose its yield advantage against other major currencies.

However, inflationary pressure remains a factor that could limit the dollar’s decline. Higher-than-expected US consumer and producer price data last week fueled concerns that inflation may not cool down anytime soon. If further economic data shows persistent price pressures, the market may adjust its expectations regarding Fed policy, thereby supporting a dollar recovery. Conversely, signals of a slowing US economy or continued declines in bond yields could put further pressure on the dollar.

Furthermore, developments in technology and AI-related credit markets could also influence investor sentiment. The recent sell-off in AI stocks has raised concerns that data center operators may struggle to generate profits quickly enough to repay their debts. Notably, while money is flowing into US government bonds, the US dollar remains weak. If concerns about the AI ​​sector continue to mount, the greenback could struggle, although safe-haven demand may still support it in the event of significant financial market volatility.

In the foreign exchange market, the EUR and Japanese yen could continue their recovery if expectations of a Fed interest rate hike diminish further. However, the outlook for these two currencies remains influenced by fiscal risks in France and the interest rate differential between the US and Japan . Additionally, oil prices and geopolitical developments continue to be key variables: rising energy prices could increase inflation concerns and support the USD, while easing tensions could allow for a weaker dollar.

Overall, the US dollar is likely to continue fluctuating this week, either weakening or sideways, as the market awaits further signals on the Fed’s interest rate policy. However, persistent inflation, bond yield volatility, and geopolitical risks could reverse this trend.

The US dollar faces downward pressure this week. (Illustration: Reuters)

Domestic USD exchange rate today

On the domestic market, at the beginning of today’s trading session (October 19), the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the US Dollar at 25,637 VND.

The USD exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam’s exchange floor remains unchanged for both buying and selling, currently at 24,406 VND – 26,868 VND.

The USD exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows:

The EUR exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam’s exchange remains unchanged for both buying and selling, currently at 27,316 VND – 30,191 VND.

The EUR exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows:

The Japanese yen exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam’s exchange remains unchanged, currently at 154 dong – 170 dong for buying and selling.

The Japanese Yen exchange rates at commercial banks for buying and selling are as follows: