IMF Executive Board Approves US$918 million Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility for Papua New Guinea
March 22, 2023
- The IMF Executive Board approved Papua New Guinea’s request for SDR684.3 million (equivalent to US$918 million) under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). [1]
- The 38-month arrangement will support Papua New Guinea’s reform agenda, which seeks to help protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth. The reforms will focus on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating FX shortages, and enhancing governance and operationalizing the anti-corruption framework.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved 38-month arrangements under the Extended
Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility for Papua New Guinea (PNG) in
the amount of SDR684.3 million (equivalent to US$918 million).
The program seeks to protect the vulnerable and foster inclusive growth.
The reforms will focus on strengthening debt sustainability, alleviating
foreign exchange (FX) shortages, and enhancing governance and
operationalizing the anti-corruption framework.
In recent years, PNG has been hit by multiple shocks including low
commodity prices in 2014-20, a severe drought in 2015-16, a major
earthquake in 2018, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21. These shocks
softened growth and led to an aggravation of FX shortages and a build-up of
public debt. PNG faces substantial development needs in order to tackle
high poverty, with most of the population living in hard-to-reach rural
areas and lacking access to basic infrastructure and services.
A recovery from the pandemic is now underway: real gross domestic product
(GDP) is estimated to have grown by 4.5 percent in 2022 as most
COVID-related restrictions were removed, allowing the non-resource sector
to rebound. Growth in 2023 is projected to be 3.7 percent, driven by the
non-resource sector. Growth in 2024 is projected to accelerate to 4.4
percent, driven by the expected reopening of Porgera gold mine. The
post-pandemic recovery has also been supported by higher commodity prices,
raising fiscal and export revenues, while causing domestic inflation to
rise.
The medium-term outlook is positive: there are good prospects of new
investments in the resource sector, which would boost growth, exports, and
fiscal revenue collection. However, PNG is vulnerable to both domestic and
external shocks, which is exacerbated by the buildup in public debt,
ongoing FX shortages, and capacity constraints that impact the government’s
ability to formulate and implement development policies.
At the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura,
Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, made the following statement:
“Papua New Guinea has experienced multiple external shocks and natural
disasters in recent years. These events have adversely impacted economic
growth, worsened foreign exchange shortages that hampered private sector
development, and increased public debt. The country also has large
development needs, including bringing down poverty and improving access to
infrastructure and services in remote rural areas. To address these
long-standing structural issues, PNG has undertaken wide-ranging reforms,
supported by the IMF and other international partners, including under two
Staff Monitored Programs (SMPs).
Building on the progress under the SMPs, the authorities need to accelerate
structural reforms to achieve resilient, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
Debt vulnerabilities will be addressed by sustaining ongoing fiscal
consolidation efforts while creating space to tackle development needs and
preserve social spending. To reduce foreign exchange shortages, the
authorities are committed to strengthening central bank operations and
moving gradually to a market-clearing exchange rate. To foster greater
transparency and accountability and strengthen the investment climate, the
authorities will build on recent improvements to the anti-corruption and
governance frameworks and make them effective.
The ECF/EFF arrangements will help address balance of payment needs and
rebuild the buffers needed to facilitate a gradual and orderly return to
greater exchange rate flexibility. The program will also go toward
financing the budget, thereby supporting the authorities’ ambitious fiscal
consolidation plans while avoiding a disruptive adjustment. It is also
expected to play a catalytic role with other development partners. Given
the institutional and technical capacity constraints faced by the
authorities, reform measures supported by the program are streamlined,
focused, and will be carefully sequenced. Timely capacity development and
advice from the IMF will support reform implementation throughout the
duration of the program.”
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Table 1. Papua New Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial |
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|
Nominal GDP (2019): |
US$24.8 billion 1/ |
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|
Population (2019): |
8.6 million |
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|
GDP per capita (2019): |
US$2,877 |
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|
Quota: |
SDR 263.2 million |
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|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
||
|
Est. |
Est. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
||||
|
(Percentage change) |
|||||||||||
|
Real sector |
|||||||||||
|
Real GDP growth |
4.5 |
-3.2 |
0.1 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
|
|
Resource 2/ |
11.3 |
-9.2 |
-11.0 |
4.7 |
0.3 |
5.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
|
Non-resource |
1.6 |
-0.4 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
|
|
Mining and quarrying (percent of GDP) |
10.8 |
10.2 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
9.8 |
10.7 |
10.3 |
9.9 |
9.4 |
8.9 |
|
|
Oil and gas extraction (percent of GDP) |
17.6 |
14.1 |
16.4 |
21.7 |
18.1 |
15.7 |
14.0 |
13.0 |
12.2 |
11.5 |
|
|
CPI (annual average) |
3.9 |
4.9 |
4.5 |
6.6 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
|
CPI (end-period) |
2.7 |
5.1 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
|
(In percent of GDP) |
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|
Central government operations |
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|
Revenue and grants |
16.3 |
14.7 |
15.0 |
15.8 |
17.1 |
16.6 |
17.0 |
17.1 |
17.3 |
17.5 |
|
|
Of which |
1.5 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
|
|
Expenditure and net lending |
20.7 |
23.5 |
21.8 |
21.2 |
21.4 |
20.5 |
19.3 |
18.2 |
17.3 |
17.3 |
|
|
Net lending(+)/borrowing(-) |
-4.4 |
-8.9 |
-6.8 |
-5.4 |
-4.3 |
-3.9 |
-2.3 |
-1.2 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
Non-resource net lending(+)/borrowing(-) |
-5.9 |
-9.8 |
-7.9 |
-9.2 |
-7.8 |
-6.7 |
-5.3 |
-4.1 |
-2.9 |
-2.8 |
|
|
(Percentage change) |
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|
Money and credit |
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|
Domestic credit |
5.2 |
2.3 |
15.9 |
0.8 |
16.7 |
11.9 |
5.7 |
3.9 |
2.9 |
14.0 |
|
|
Credit to the private sector |
4.1 |
4.2 |
2.5 |
9.2 |
8.4 |
8.5 |
8.8 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
8.3 |
|
|
Broad money |
4.4 |
7.0 |
13.4 |
12.7 |
-2.7 |
4.9 |
7.0 |
6.8 |
5.5 |
7.2 |
|
|
(In billions of U.S. dollars) |
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|
Balance of payments |
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|
Exports, f.o.b. |
11.4 |
9.1 |
10.3 |
15.5 |
13.7 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
14.9 |
15.3 |
15.7 |
|
|
Imports, c.i.f. |
-3.9 |
-3.3 |
-2.7 |
-2.9 |
-3.0 |
-3.1 |
-3.2 |
-3.3 |
-3.5 |
-3.7 |
|
|
Current account (including grants) |
4.9 |
4.7 |
5.7 |
10.8 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
8.7 |
9.2 |
|
|
(In percent of GDP) |
20.0 |
19.7 |
21.3 |
34.1 |
22.3 |
21.9 |
23.9 |
22.5 |
22.8 |
22.5 |
|
|
Gross official international reserves |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
|
|
(In months of goods and services imports) |
6.2 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
11.1 |
7.5 |
6.4 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
5.7 |
|
|
(In percent of GDP) |
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|
Government debt |
|||||||||||
|
Government gross debt |
40.6 |
48.7 |
52.1 |
47.9 |
49.9 |
51.2 |
51.8 |
49.1 |
44.9 |
41.0 |
|
|
External debt-to-GDP ratio (in percent) 3/ |
17.1 |
21.8 |
24.8 |
23.4 |
25.7 |
28.0 |
30.0 |
29.1 |
27.0 |
23.3 |
|
|
External debt-service ratio (percent of exports) |
1.2 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
6.7 |
|
|
Exchange rates |
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|
US$/kina (end-period) |
0.2935 |
0.2850 |
0.2850 |
0.2838 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
|
NEER (2005=100, fourth quarter) |
97.0 |
90.7 |
91.2 |
100.3 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
|
REER (2005=100, fourth quarter) |
125.5 |
122.6 |
125.1 |
135.5 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
|
Terms of trade (2010=100, end-period) |
63.7 |
62.6 |
58.4 |
77.4 |
70.0 |
71.4 |
72.3 |
72.6 |
72.5 |
72.7 |
|
|
Nominal GDP (in billions of kina) |
83.8 |
82.5 |
92.4 |
110.1 |
114.8 |
122.1 |
128.4 |
136.4 |
145.1 |
154.2 |
|
|
Non-resource nominal GDP (in billions of kina) |
60.1 |
62.5 |
69.3 |
76.4 |
82.8 |
89.8 |
97.2 |
105.2 |
113.7 |
122.6 |
|
|
Sources: Department of Treasury; Bank of Papua New Guinea; |
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1/ Based on period average exchange rate. |
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2/ Resource sector includes production of mineral, |
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3/ Public external debt includes external debt of the |
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Sources: Department of Treasury; Bank of Papua New Guinea;
and IMF staff estimates and projections.
1/ Based on period average exchange rate.
2/ Resource sector includes production of mineral,
petroleum, and gas and directly-related activities such as
mining and quarrying, but excludes indirectly-related
activities such as transportation and construction.
3/ Public external debt includes external debt of the
central government, the central bank, and statutory
authorities.
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