- The dollar-won exchange rate fell to 1,414.5 won intraday, its lowest level in 10 months, as the Korean currency strengthened.
- US efforts to stabilize Asian currencies and easing tensions in the Middle East helped support the won and raised expectations for a further decline in the exchange rate.
- Brokerages said the dollar-won exchange rate could temporarily enter the 1,300 won range in the second half, assuming continued US currency intervention and improved domestic dollar supply and demand.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Dollar-won rate falls to its lowest intraday level in 10 months
Brokerages see a move into the 1,300 won range in the second half
The dollar-won exchange rate fell to its lowest intraday level in about 10 months on Aug. 6 as exporters continued to sell dollars and tensions in the Middle East eased somewhat.
The rate opened at 1,423.0 won per dollar at 6 a.m. and dropped to 1,414.5 won by 11:07 a.m. That marked the lowest intraday level since Oct. 2, 2025, when it traded at 1,399.5 won. It later rebounded above 1,420 won in the afternoon as importers bought dollars for settlement and demand for foreign-stock related currency exchange increased.
The won’s strength was driven in large part by a partial easing in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Wall Street Journal reported a day earlier that Iran and Oman were finalizing a draft 60-day temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said on Aug. 6 that the two sides had agreed on the geographic coordinates of the proposed shipping route. A joint statement by the two countries is under review and in the final stages, he added.
Oil prices showed no clear direction. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, settled 0.1% higher on the London ICE Futures Exchange, while West Texas Intermediate futures closed 0.7% lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The won also drew support from expectations that the US is backing stability in Asian currencies, including the yen.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC a day earlier that when the yen becomes excessively weak, other currencies tend to weaken as well, explaining why the US government had recently moved directly to defend the Japanese currency.
“A stable yen is very important not only for the US but for the broader Asian economy,” Bessent said. “If the yen weakens too much, that can trigger competitive currency devaluations, and that is not healthy.”
He also said the US has seen excessive volatility in the Korean won and that many people believe the Chinese yuan is undervalued, signaling that yen weakness could have a spillover effect on Asian currencies including the won.
After those comments, the dollar-won rate immediately turned lower in the overnight session on Aug. 4 and widened its decline to 8 won the following day.
US foreign-exchange authorities had previously intervened several times in the New York currency market starting July 31 by selling euros and buying yen to support Japan’s currency. On the same day, Reuters published a photograph of a notepad on Bessent’s desk during a US federal cabinet meeting that read, “Buy Japanese yen (JPY) $5 billion-$10 billion.”
Analysts said the dollar-won rate could briefly enter the 1,300 won range in the second half.
Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities, said both the dollar-yen and dollar-won rates are expected to fall further, citing the US government’s willingness to intervene aggressively in currency markets and improving dollar supply-demand conditions in South Korea. He said the dollar-won rate could move into the 1,300 won range if the dollar-yen rate falls to the 155-yen level, given stronger won-yen co-movement.
Moon Da-woon, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, said demand for currency exchange tied to interim corporate tax prepayments could be concentrated in August. If a US economic slowdown becomes clearer, the lower bound for the exchange rate could fall further, he said, adding that the dollar-won rate may also enter the 1,300 won range in the second half.
Noh Jeong-dong, Hankyung.com reporter dong2@hankyung.com
