An Increase in Retail Sales

The pair is expected to continue its general upward trend as long as it stabilizes within the borders of the mentioned price channels. 

Risk 0.50%.

• Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 28.90 level.
• Place a stop loss closing point below the support level at 28.70.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 29.15.

• Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 29.10 level.
• The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 29.25.
• Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
• Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the 28.85 support level.

The USD/TRY stabilized during early trading on Thursday morning near its highest levels ever. Investors followed retail sales data in Türkiye, which was released yesterday, Wednesday. The Turkish Statistical Institute issued a report revealing that retail sales in the country recorded an increase on an annual basis last October by 13.7 percent compared to October 2022.

The increase in sales of food, beverages, and tobacco led to an increase in retail sales after recording an increase of 13.8 percent, in the same year. At the same time, sales of non-food items recorded an increase of 18.9%, while on the contrary, sales of automobile fuel recorded a decline of 3.3%. Every month, retail sales recorded an increase of 2.0% in October compared to September, as sales of food, beverages, and tobacco recorded an increase of 0.9%. Sales of non-food items also increased by 3.0%, while sales of motor fuel recorded a decline of 0.2%.

The overall economic data in Turkey tended to be positive, especially over the recent months, as the change in monetary policy that the country has been witnessing for about six months began to have a positive impact on the economic data, although this impact has not yet reached the price of the Turkish lira, which continues to decline.

On the technical level, trading in the TRY/USD stabilized in the same price range without major changes throughout this week’s trading, as the pair traded near its highest levels ever at levels of 29.05. On the large time frame, the price moves within an ascending price channel on today’s time frame, reflecting the strong general upward trend that the pair has been following over several months. While the pair has recently recorded a slowdown, with the price entering another ascending price channel, it is less severe.

If the pair rises, it targets the resistance levels, which are concentrated at the levels of 29.15 and 29.25, respectively, while on the other hand, if the pair declines, it targets the levels of 28.90 and 28.75, respectively. The pair is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages respectively on the day time frame, as well as on the 4-hour time frame in a reflection of buyers’ control over the price. The pair is expected to continue its general upward trend as long as it stabilizes within the borders of the mentioned price channels. Please adhere to the mentioned recommendation points and maintain capital management.

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