EUR/USD Forecast Video for 30.06.23
Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but has since seen quite a bit of negative pressure. The unemployment claims number in the United States was better than anticipated, so people are worried about whether the Federal Reserve will have to continue tightening, which of course, they do. Some people will not listen to Jerome Powell, even though he has already said there are 2 more interest rate hikes coming. With that, there is a certain amount of disbelief in the markets when it comes to the Federal Reserve, so when you see moves like this, it’s normally those people being slightly convinced a bit further.
In general, this is a market that is facing the 50-Day EMA just below, and I think it probably could offer a little bit of support, just as it did last week. If we slice through that 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 200-Day EMA underneath. All things being equal, the market breaking through all of that opens up the possibility of a much deeper correction, perhaps even a trend change. It certainly looks as if the market is going to continue to be very noisy, and of course, the US dollar has the very tight Federal Reserve behind it. However, the European Central Bank has already stated that they are more likely than not going to raise interest rates next month as well.
In other words, I think you continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore we have to be very cautious about position sizing. I would not go “all in” into this market, and quite frankly I expect to see further choppiness going forward. With this, the market is likely to be more noisy than anything else, so with that in mind, I think we have to look at this more or less as a consolidation area. Expect a lot of choppiness, and therefore you will probably have to trade this market from a very short-term perspective.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
